2009 Predix Begin With ... Best Picture

2009 predix are finally -- yes, FINALLY -- underway, beginning with BEST PICTURE.

Check 'em out here.

Brief commentary ...

I'm not entirely pleased with what I came up with. I never am this early in the game. But I wanted to find at least one Original Screenplay contender to consider because one almost always gets nominated.

Sadly, the only one I could think of (with a legit Best Picture chance, anyway) was Funny People. But how the hell does one predict a Judd Apatow movie when the Academy won't even go for The Dark Knight or WALL-E? It's too dangerous.

So in the end I settled on the following:

'The Human Factor'
'The Lovely Bones'
'Nine'
'Precious'
'Shutter Island'

I feel great about predicting 'The Human Factor' -- and everyone should, really. It's just going to be one of those movies that does really well with the Academy, and I can pretty much assure you that Morgan Freeman will win Best Actor? How can he not? It'll have to be a disastrous picture for that to happen, and even the cynic in me knows it won't be.

I feel less confident about the rest, although I have been warming up to 'Nine' lately. I'm sure comparisons will be made to 'Chicago,' especially since it looks like a lot of it was filmed on a sound stage, but Daniel Day-Lewis and particularly Judi Dench look terrific. I think they're both in for nominations.

Meanwhile, I'm just predicting 'The Lovely Bones' and 'Shutter Island' as fillers for now. They could both go either way, although I will say I'm more confident about the former (I guess ... )

Finally, I went with 'Precious' for the hell of it. I did not care much for the trailer, but I just know it's going to be one of those movies that everyone talks about. It also comes out in November, which is perfect timing, especially for what looks to be a real weepie. And with Oprah's backing, well, consider 'Precious' in the running for a Best Picture nomination ... if you can believe it. Watch the trailer below:



So that's it for now. I'll update next with Director and Actor sometime this week (which in Andy actually means September).

Feel free to post YOUR Best Picture predix below.

2009 Launch within the hour ...

Cutting Best Picture photos now. Yay! Stay tuned.

Weekend screening schedule

'The Da Vinci Code' was one of my least favorite movie-going experiences, so odds are I will pass on 'Angels & Demons.'

What about you?

First Glimpse of ... 'Nine'

From Entertainment Tonight:



Team Fergie?

But ugh, why is 'Be Italian' on a soundstage?

'Precious' Trailer

Let the Oprah pimping begin -- straight from Oprah's site!

Seriously, how far is she going to push (that pun would have been so great with the old title!) this movie? I'm scared.

Is 'The Road' REALLY that important?

Esquire thinks so.

Read their spoilerific take:

At one point in The Road, a moment that is never otherwise explained or referenced, the father and the son stare at a dead forest as it burns. The fire leers profanely from one edge of the screen to the other. Dense and hot, certainly loud, it's the sort of fire from which there is no safe distance. It feels like the two of them should get out of there. From the get-go, the father and son have moved. And yet now they stand there watching the fire, dazed, like two drunks gazing out the window of a Laundromat at a mushroom cloud.

Full review.

Ehh. I'm skeptical.

Nicole bids adieu to Woody Allen

She frustrates the hell out of me, I swear.

From Variety:

Nicole Kidman has ankled her role in Woody Allen's latest, untitled project.

Pic, which co-stars Antonio Banderas, Anthony Hopkins, Josh Brolin, Naomi Watts and Freida Pinto, is set to start shooting in London in the summer.

There is no word yet on who Kidman's replacement will be.

--

But hey: At least she still has time to do commercials!

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118003504.html?categoryId=13&cs=1

'Up': Yes or No?

I didn't think much of Pixar's 'Up' when I first saw the trailer (well, I remember thinking it looked "stupid" -- a word I hate to use).

But now that I've seen the trailer on the big screen I'm beginning to wonder if it was a bad idea to write it off so quickly. Could it be the next great Pixar movie? Or is it the next 'Cars'? Watch the trailer, then decide for yourself.

poll by twiigs.com

ETA: Hey, looks like it's doing pretty well @ Cannes!

4-Minute 'Terminator Clip'

Christian Bale freak out not included.

Clip here.

Are you pumped to see this 'Terminator' reboot? Post now.

Whither Renee?

Sometimes following an actor you love can be painful, especially when that actor is Renee Zellweger.

I credit myself as one of the last surviving Renee fans on the internet. Most people gave up on her after 'Cold Mountain,' and six stressful years later I'm beginning to wonder if that was a wise decision after all.

'Case' in point: the 'Case 39' trailer, which puts Renee in a battle against supernatural beings, cliche scare tactics and -- presumably -- the critics.

Watch the trailer here.

I don't know what's happened to her career, or why she's in these movies to begin with. But she's starting to frustrate me so much that it's becoming that much harder to defend her.

So now I'm thinking it's time for me to let her roam free for awhile -- which may ultimately wind up being a good thing. I did the same with Gwyneth Paltrow and she just fired back with a stunning performance in this year's 'Two Lovers.'


Perhaps the same will happen with Renee in 'My Own Love Song'?

But probably not. Sigh. I just hope Renee can survive without me ...

Notes form a disenchanted Oscar watcher

So, I'm back and I'm about to push the play button on my 2009 Oscar predictions (starting this week with BEST PICTURE).

But I have to admit that in doing so, I'm a little hesitant -- hence, my brief (okay, long) disappearance.

The reason I'm hesitant is because I feel like we've seen two completely -- almost bi-polar -- sides of the Academy over the last two years.

In 2007, they made bold and daring choices with 'There Will Be Blood,' 'Juno,' 'No Country for Old Men' -- even 'Atonement' felt like a cool choice in some weird, classic kind of way.

Then we had the baffling year that was 2008. Instead of going for bold choices again (hello, 'Dark Knight' snub!) they reverted back to their old tactics by nominating 'The Reader,' 'Frost/Nixon' and what have you.

Part of me wants to say that 2008 was just a fluke year, and that I'm OK to make bold predictions for 2009. But is it possible that 2007 was really the fluke, a perfect storm where all of the year's best movies were the ones getting all of the right awards buzz?

I really don't know.

I'm gonna think on this for a couple more days and then have my predictions up by NO LATER THAN FRIDAY. I'm sick of being MIA from you guys -- it's not fair to you or to the blog.

In the meantime, how much fun was 'Star Trek'?