Check 'em out here.Brief commentary ...
I'm not entirely pleased with what I came up with. I never am this early in the game. But I wanted to find at least one Original Screenplay contender to consider because one almost always gets nominated.
Sadly, the only one I could think of (with a legit Best Picture chance, anyway) was Funny People. But how the hell does one predict a Judd Apatow movie when the Academy won't even go for The Dark Knight or WALL-E? It's too dangerous.
So in the end I settled on the following:
'The Human Factor'
'The Lovely Bones'
'Nine'
'Precious'
'Shutter Island'
I feel great about predicting 'The Human Factor' -- and everyone should, really. It's just going to be one of those movies that does really well with the Academy, and I can pretty much assure you that Morgan Freeman will win Best Actor? How can he not? It'll have to be a disastrous picture for that to happen, and even the cynic in me knows it won't be.
I feel less confident about the rest, although I have been warming up to 'Nine' lately. I'm sure comparisons will be made to 'Chicago,' especially since it looks like a lot of it was filmed on a sound stage, but Daniel Day-Lewis and particularly Judi Dench look terrific. I think they're both in for nominations.
Meanwhile, I'm just predicting 'The Lovely Bones' and 'Shutter Island' as fillers for now. They could both go either way, although I will say I'm more confident about the former (I guess ... )Finally, I went with 'Precious' for the hell of it. I did not care much for the trailer, but I just know it's going to be one of those movies that everyone talks about. It also comes out in November, which is perfect timing, especially for what looks to be a real weepie. And with Oprah's backing, well, consider 'Precious' in the running for a Best Picture nomination ... if you can believe it. Watch the trailer below:
So that's it for now. I'll update next with Director and Actor sometime this week (which in Andy actually means September).
Feel free to post YOUR Best Picture predix below.
52 comments:
I'm 5/5 with you. I didn't really think Precious was going to be that big until Oprah got her hands on it.
And thanks for not predicting Public Enemies. The movie is good but not BP worthy. Maybe if it was a November/December release would I have considered it.
Oh and Avatar is my #6. Speilberg and Soderbergh have been praising what they've seen.
Yeah, forgot about 'Avatar.'
I'm already regretting predicting 'Shutter Island.' Sigh ...
btw: the site builder wont load anymore, so ill have to update the main page side banners later ...
I made my predix in January here: http://themoviewizard.com/editorial04.html.
I'm already starting to regret some of the choices, but it was more fun then anything, so I guess it's okay.
i still say good predictions can't be made until movies premiere at toronto.
and yes, i'm saying that partly biased but just remember juno, and of course, slumdog millionaire, which was so close to going straight to dvd but then won the people's choice award.
Andy,
Nine being filmed mostly on a sound stage makes a lot of sense. It's about a director trying to finish his next film. So it's basically a set on a set.
Yet, I've also seen a lot of pictures from the set that have been on location shots.
Public Enemies is a very American topic, with likely great performances from Depp and Cotillard.
I don't think the Academy can resist that.
It looks expensive & well-edited too.
I say:
The Human Factor
Public Enemies
Nine
Avatar
Shutter Island
and maybe a surprise nom for Julie&Julia? That film could be everything Doubt wasn't, in terms of a Meryl renaissance.
My predix are:
Nine (Win?)
Shutter Island (pretty confident)
Public Enemies (Maybe, it's hard to tell now.)
The Human Factor (Win?)
The Lovely Bones (I guess)
I don't think Precious will be nominated, from the preview, it looks like the only buzz it will be getting is from Mo'nique. I think she has a Very good chance of winning. Also I think you're wrong about Nine. I think it could snag the oscar for Best Picture, and then some.
I think Funny People has a damn good shot at a nomination with all the early buzz comparing it to James L. Brooks and everything.
Also, let's not forget the Coen Brothers have A Serious Man, which I don't believe is finished, but there's good buzz on the screenplay and all that. However, it's coming out in early October, the same week as Shutter Island, and while I'm sure I'll go clownshit over both films, I'm worried about their Oscar chances. Maybe a little bit too early? But it's the same week The Departed came out. If either of them resonate with viewers they could hang over Oscar season, especially with a one-two punch like that.
However, I think just one dark comedy is enough for the Academy, at least in BP, and so I may have to go with Funny People.
Also, let's not forget Inglorious Basterds, which, according to people who have read the script, is about as Oscar-friendly as Kill Bill. If it's a big smash, it could get in, but the August release date worries me.
Avatar, maybe, but I'd rather bet on the lone director nomination for that.
Also, Where the Wild Things Are, anyone? Looks brilliant. Although it may not be Academy friendly. Actually, I think this is more lone-director stuff, and Spike Jonze has been the lone director before.
Oh, this is so exciting.
My guess is Cotillard's out considering she doesn't have a showy role in a showy film and she could cancel herself with Public Enemy + her win is so recent, and I think they'll look at Cruz in the leading category for a Volver redux and she's just won, so that leaves a spot for someone other than Dench.
COuld it be Kidman ? Her song is the best of the show, and she seems godess-like in this, after all they loved her when she was all glamorous in MR ! (+ she's blonde + she's got a Swedish accent !)
Julie and Julia for best picture???? Wow Judy really is one dumb cunt.
"My guess is Cotillard's out considering she doesn't have a showy role in a showy film and she could cancel herself with Public Enemy + her win is so recent"
Well, that's not necessary true. In fact, Cotillard has the bigger role of the women in "Nine", she has the Oscarizable role and that role had TONY nominations. Plus: In Public Enemies she received all the raves (If they nominated performances like Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder" or Ruby Dee in "American gangster"...)
Glad someone else didn't liket he Precious trailer seemed like you got attacked for even mentioning that it didn't look interesting. This early its a good lineup (and yes I have watched the Nine trailer about a hundred times)
I am now a billion times more excited for Sherlock Holmes than any of these films. Sorry, guys, I know I'm a disgrace to all Oscar prognosticators.
What about Away We Go? I saw it and thought it was REALLY good. Best I've seen so far this year.
I think NINE has the potential to BOMB as far as all around nominations go...but there is no doubt that one of the women will get a supporting actress nom. by the trailer...which means nothing...marion catillard looooks amazing....there is so much emotion in every scene...but that means nothing...penelope has the scene stealing number and judi's got the scene stealing lines...
look who stopped posting yet again. Andy is such a lazy ass tool.
I know, right?! Seriously, what the FUCK? I cant believe Andy doesn't spend all his time on his blog. He's such a dick, not making fruitless Oscar predictions that dont do anything for society and make him no money. He needs to quit doing whatever he's doing outside of the internet RIGHT FUCKING NOW and have some fun and provide something for us to read for a full minute. Goddamn, fuckin Oscar and the City, EverythingOscarBlogger. Fuck. Lazy ass dipshit.
What about 'Amelia' or 'Inglorious Basterds' or 'Up'? I think you've forgotten a few good possibilities.
Well, Citizen, I think any of these films have the real chance for Being Nominated.
Inglorious Basterds reviews were too mixed and even when Christoph Waltz became the frotnrunner in Supporting Actor there's almost a longshot. If they ignore Tarantino for "Jackie Brown"?
Again, "Up" is out because is an animated film. Cases: Ratatouille and Wall-E...
About "Amelia", I know it's tpoo early to know, but I have reasons:
*Test Screeners received very NEGATIVE response. If that's true is impossible
*The competition for Best Actress is becoming stronger: Streep, Watson, Sidibe, Ronan, Cornish, Mulligan, Portman, Tautou, Mirren, Pfeiffer...
*If history is true, Swank hasn't any chance for being at least nominated again. All the actresses who won 2 Oscars at 2 Nominations are out. Remember Sally Field in "Forrest Gump?"
can you define "all the actresses who won 2 osacars at 2 nominations"? Beyong Sally Field I think theres very little precedent, and even still, career choices of others dont set the rule for Swanks career. Beyonf which, I doubt there are screeners this far in advance. Perhaps a very early test screening. Theres no way to write off Amelia yet. Although it's one im not necessarily confident in.
Up shouldn't be written off becuase of Wall-E and Ratatouille. In fact, I think that makes it even stronger. Every year the buzz for a pixar film builds stronger, and at some point the academy might feel the studio is overdue. On top of that, last year many were saying Wall-E and TDK were fighting for a Hollywood blockbuster nod, thinking it unlikely 2 such films would get nominated. This year Only Up has been getting these kinds of reviews. Add sentimental value (and Ed Asner), anniversary (10th pixar feature), and I smell a capaign.
Oh, and Inglorious Bastards is screwed.
"all the actresses who won 2 osacars at 2 nominations"?
Indiosincrasic. When I said that, those actors below, were nominated twice and they get the Oscar for those nominations. In any case, an actor return to nominated again after winning two Oscars from two nominations
*Helen Hayes
*Luise Rainer
*Vivien Leigh (She lost her other possible nomination for "Ship of Fools")
*Sally Field
*Kevin Spacey (The only man in this category)
Well, you said all actresses who have won 2 oscars are out for being nominated, when you mentioned Meryl Streep who has won two oscars,one for Sophie's Choice and another for Kramer v. Kramer, she has been nominated many times since then icluding last year for Doubt.
I should also mention, hesitantly, Away We Go for a nomination or two, possibly for best picture, directer Sam Mendes and maybe for best Actress Mya Rudolph.
I should also add, 'Anonymous', that Inglorious Basterds did NOT recieve negitave responce, maybe for viewers, but critics in general thought very highly of Inglorious Basterds at the cannes film festival, especially Roger Ebert, he wrote a rather lengthy blog entry regarding high praise to the film.
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Citizen, again you're wrong. I didn't said that... I said every actress who won two Oscar for ONLY two nominations never return... Or:
As of 2008, Swank is only one of six actors who have a 2-0 winning record when nominated for an acting Oscar. The others are Luise Rainer for The Great Ziegfeld (1936) and The Good Earth (1937); Vivien Leigh for Gone with the Wind (1939) and A Streetcar Named Desire (1951); Helen Hayes for The Sin of Madelon Claudet (1931) and Airport (1970); Sally Field for Norma Rae (1979) and Places in the Heart (1984); and Kevin Spacey for The Usual Suspects (1995) and American Beauty (1999).
For La Streep she received four nominations in that period. So she's out of the contention:
-Best Supporting Actress for "the Deer Hunter" in 1978
-WON Best Supproting Actress for "Kramer versus Kramer" next year
-Best Actress "The French Lieaturnant Woman"
-WON Best Actress for "Sophie's Choice"
Again, "Inglorious Basterds" had mixed response if you count big critics like: The Guardian, The Hollywood Reporter and Screen International. But again if "The Reader" and "Life is beautiful" did it...
ok this is beyond redic. It's been almost a month. Did Andy fucking die or something? If he expects people to actually read his blog then maybe he should update it every once in a while. I dont know, just a suggestion.
...or post the reader's choice top ten oscar snubs results (#4-#1) from a YEAR AGO...
C'MON, Andy...
The Answer Man. Will we finally see Jeff Daniels score an oscar nomination?
WTF is wrong with this site?
Andy get your fucking shit together
And wouldn't that make for a warm welcome?
Q: How many surrealists does it take to change a light bulb?
A: The fish.
6/17
so um... is anyone even in touch with Andy anymore? Should we start a search party or something?
i think andy has been kidnapped or something
Dig. I'm getting "Taken" vibes here.
Maybe he's been camping out to be first in line to see "Year One" this weekend.
Maybe he got the swine flu.
I hope this isn't goodbye...
36 days.
shut the fuck up with that shit 18, sad that you lost your daddy
Yeah man, this does kind of suck. I used to check out this site at least a couple times a week...now I am forced to do all my checking over at Awards Circuit.
^^^ lol me too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iZi9f5CEq8
Just switch the word christmas for Andy. lol
6/23
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