Tonight's updates were considerably less stressful than Supporting Actress was, and certainly less than Best Actor will be week.
This mostly has to do how quiet the Supporting Actor race has been. We've already seen Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, and after all of the money and good reviews it's earned, we know he's in for a nomination.
Josh Brolin still looks good for a nomination as well, even if Milk isn't the Best Picture contender many think it is. The same goes for Michael Sheen in Frost/Nixon.
Then we have Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Road. He would have been added to my predix a lot sooner if this hadn't been such a busy summer for me. His role is so crucial to the story, and I think his performance is going to have the same kind of effect as it did in the book. I mean, how can audiences watch a father and son walk through hell and not want to cry? So I think he's in.Finally, I had a bit of trouble figuring out who to put in for the 5th spot. I decided on John Malkovich at the last second just to kind of test the waters on Changeling. I'm still not sure if it will be an Angelina-or-bust type deal, but let's see where this goes. If he gets the nod, fine. If Butler Hartner gets the nod instead, that's fine too. I have my fingers crossed for Charlize in The Road, anyway. If she gets nominated, I will do a crazy happy dance. ;)
What do you guys think of my predix? Are they looking good or did I forget someone? Discuss below!
12 comments:
scratch Sheen, Andy. I had high hopes for him, but some dumbass gave him top billing over Langella. Even if he does have more screentime, at least fake it as a supporting role. Just like Denzel Washington had less screentime in Train Day than Ethan Hawke, and Whitaker had less in Last king of Scotland than McAvoy.
Its a tough category to call. I think people are overestimating Milk. a LOT. Body of Lies looks kinda 'meh', with a decent, but very mannered perf from Crowe. Downey Jr is positioned well, but the film could be as crappy as the oscarbaity ben stiller trailer about the retarded kid from the opening of Tropic Thunder.
Whats missing here? The veterans. Which old guys are up this year? If Sheen carries Frost/Nixon, would they dare throw Langella in Supporting?
As i posted in one of the other topics, I think Warner might campaign Oldman for the Dark Knight alongside Ledger if the competition wont heat up anytime soon.
Oh, also, consider this: Tom Wilkinson, Kenneth Branagh, Thomas Kretschmann, Bill Nighy, Stephen Fry... the supporting cast of Valkyrie looks like it was made to produce an oscar nominee, and only one ofthose guys has to hit it out of the park. My bet would be Wilkinson, as he is very beloved, very good, very overdue, and he had a tremendous year (with Recount and John Adams).
Oh, and the guy who plays Castro in Che? It should be very baity, nice to put a foreign actor in the mix, which is what theyve been doing quite a lot lately.
Very good buzz on Liev Schreiber in Defiance, but hes gone from your predix. Seriously, enough with the Milk love, Andy...
Let me also throw in the mix Jim Broadbent for the Young Victoria. Its a meaty role, hes onlyy been on oscars radar once, and might get a nod to show his ocar was no fluke, and he gets to do a lot of being sad first and then die tragically. I smell oscar.
^^^Don't forget that Wilkinson was nominated for an Oscar this year for Michael Clayton...
Top 5 (I'm blanking out on names)
The kid from The Road
Heath Ledger* (winner for sure)
James Franco (Milk)
Revolutionary Road (Michael something)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
6-10 (in no order)
Australia (I forgot his name...)
Michael Sheen
John Malkovich
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder or The Soloist)
Josh Brolin
Even if Sheen gets top billing I could see him going supporting. Langella did win the Tony for Best Actor. Hmmm. . .
What is going on with Che, anyway? I'm stuck as far as who to predict for Best Actor.
And LOL, 17. Way to blank on all of those names. ;)
There were only 3 blanks. Oh and I wanted to be the first to say that James Franco will get a nomination. I'm feeling it. They added three more "love" scenes with him and Penn. That might turn of voters, but I think he's Jack to Penn's Ennis. Oh and it doesn't matter if Sheen gets top billing. Academy voters get to pick were they want to nominate the star. Zeta Jones got a Lead GG nomination, she was nominated and won in supporting. DiCaprio was nominated at the GG and BFCA in lead but at SAG was supporting. Sheen will be a supporting player. Oh and I'm thinking he's getting top billing only becuase the title is Frost/Nixon. Sheen is playing Frost and that would make the most sense.
Well, it looks like a lot of the film will focus on Sheen's character, but Langella is playing Nixon, so. . .
the vibe im getting from Frost/Nixon is that it will play a lot like Last King of Scotland, where we follow McAvoys character throughout the film as he witnesses a larger-than-life character. Some complained that Whitaker should have been entered in supporting, in fact.
The main difference is the billing, however, that has me concerned. They might try to go for a rare double best actor nod.
I've got a pretty good feeling Malkovich is in, and he's got a good chance of winning over Ledger. Clint has a history of directing veteran, overdue actors to Supporting Actor Oscars (Hackman, Robbins, Freeman). It just may be Malkovich's year.
I think that's a pretty reasonable list, given what we know at this point.
I don't think that Brolin will get a supporting nomination for "Milk" - I thik it'd be more likely to be James Franco or even Emile Hirsch. The Brolin argument that he had buzz last year is even stronger for Hirsch. Franco has buzz THIS year, plus Franco and Hirsch play sympathetic characters while Brolin does not.
I think someone from "Australia" is likely to get in, David Wenham, Bryan Brown, David Gulilpilil, whoever has the most indelible role.
And I'd go for Jamie Bell over Liev Schrieber in "Defiance". I like Schreiber but Bell is someone special, and it's vindicating to see him transform into an adult actor.
And I'm still hoping for Sam Neill in "Skin".
I have the script for Changeling. The supporting actors with the best written roles are John Malkovich and Jeffrey Donovan. Amy Ryan has a nice small supporting role as well.
In the top five:
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight: Ledger is the only LOCK for Oscar Nomination even for win. I hope Warner Bros doesn't get the stupid choice for change him in Leading category...
2. Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon: He's snubbed two years ago and I think he gets more chances instead Langhella.
3. Robert Downey Jr, The Soloist: Right now, he has a fantastic year. Only if the film was crap he's a likely contender.
4. Koby Smit-McPhee, The Road: Yes, I know girls are more beloved in supporting category but Haley, Sal, Brandon... Plus. His character is fantastic.
5. Milk's guy: I choose Franco:
-A la Gyllenhaal: james Franco (He's a hot, talented and respected actor and Pinneapple Express sucess)
-A la Wahlberg: Emile Hirsch (Maybe Speed Race didn't work very well but he's almost close to Oscar Nomination last year)
-A la Bardem: Josh Brolin (I don't think, we have the villian of the year-Ledger- and constantly scandals hurts his chances. Plus: How is W?)
in the running:
6. Changeling's guy: Maybe you think I'm wrong and crazy but I take a risk and I choose Jeffrey Donovan:
-Veteran: John Malkovich gets raves and Eastwood works well with male veterans, but he didn't get an Oscar Nomination as a producer for "juno" and his last nomination was in 1993...
-Broadway star: Butler Henry maybe is one of the breakthoughs of the year, but his role (Not his acting) is one note according with many reviews and he didn't have a lot of time.
-Hot famous TV Star: Jeffrey Donovan has one of the most TV programs and he has the look and talent for being the next star in Hollywood.
7. Liev Schreiber, Defiance: According with test Sceeners he steals the show even with Craig and Zwick works well in this category.
8. Russell Crowe, Body of Lies: The trailer is meh and I think is more a Tony instead Ridley Scott's film...
9. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road: I don't think so, maybe is only DiCaprio-Winslet team.
10. Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading: He gets raves since Venice and with TCCOBB...
Alternative:
11. Sam Neill, Skin: I watched the trailer and looks better that expected...
12. Kenneth Branagh, Valkyrie: Maybe isthe only chances of Oscar Consideration for Valkyrie...
13. Tom Wilkinson, Valkyrie: See Kenneth Branagh.
14. Jamie Bell, Defiance: schreiber is more likely for Oscar Nomination (For Test Screeners), but he's growing as a star, because he's a great actor and he's awfully snubbed for "Billy Elliot"
15. Demian Bichir, Che: Sorry but maybe next year. The film even didn't get a date release or distributor.
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