Jennifer Jason Leigh, meanwhile, has been taken off the list. I didn't want to do it, but as 16 year old blogger pointed out in the comments section, "Margot at the Wedding" is filled with unlikeable characters, which probably won't go over well with voters.
Anyway, this is the last update you'll see in this category for a couple of weeks. I'm gonna spend the rest of the weekend trying to figure out Best Supporting Actor, which is perhaps the biggest mindf#%$ among the acting categories.
Stay tuned, and in the meantime be sure to check out the Weekend Movies thread below.
26 comments:
Your Tilda Swinton entry has the same information as Saoirse Ronan just to let you know
God dammit.
I need an editor.
And Jennifer Garner is gaining more traction by day for Juno...She is getting raves on Broadway for Cyrano and they are saying as of now she's a shoo in for a Tony nom, which will help carry more buzz...
ABOUT JASON LEIGH--
listen to this. So last night at the BAFTA table I was talking with a lady who worked for Variety online and I asked her if she saw Margot and she said "yes" and I asked her what she thought of it. She said it wasn't her cup of tea, but when I asked her about Kidman, Leigh and Jack Black she said they were all amazing and unforgettable. She said that Kidman surprised her the most and a nomination isn't out of the question. She also said that people she talked to didn't like the movie becuase of the unlikeable characters but other thought that Kidman and Leigh were shoo-ins for some award love. She also said that many people didn't hate the movie but it sounded like they did becuase the characters weren't likeable. I am also so jealous that she is going to see No Country for Old Man on Monday.
Andy, I think that Saoirse Ronan is going to win this award.
Yes! I read the NY Times review yesterday. I was a little surprised, but happy nonetheless.
Really? You think Ronan could win it? I have no idea what's going to happen other than Blanchett will be nominated. I don't think Cate will win, though, once more reviews come out. But we'll see.
Ronan's probably gonna knock her character out of the park. I hope it's a great love-to-hate performance.
Ronan is going to win. She has the buzz, she is the one with the most "Briony" screentime (I heard she has 10 minutes less than Knightley which will help). Also, I think that when usually actors vote for the Oscars they see how much the win will help. Like I think they will ask the question, will Cate Blanchett get better roles with another Oscar? In the end though, Ronan is doing The Lovely Bones, and the screenplay is said to be fantastic. This is Ronan's to lose.
My Revised Line-Up:
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement*
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
You can't have your cake (McDonald) and eat it (Redgrave) to. It's one cameo or the other Andy,
ok this is how i see it goin down
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Leslie Mann - Knocked Up
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Marisa Tomei - Before the Devil Know's Youre Dead
My Leslie Mann predict is clearly wishful thinking but if she gets that globe nod shes got a shot! I also left out the obvious Ronan (which deep inside i know is wrong) but i just did! and i can tell you now redgrave is not getting a nod! people stop!
Oh! I forgot Amy Ryan...Leslie Mann is not going to get in UNLESS she wins at least 3 critics awards and gets either the SAG or Golden Globe Nom. Anyways, I think I am going to switch out Redgrave for Ryan but I won't change it as of now.
Thank you for keeping Kelly!!
So it seems that Cate Blanchett will be very pregnant when she goes to the Oscars. So lets see, in the past couple of years there have been 2 pregnant Best Supporting Actress winners and even more pregant nominees....and American Gangster is looking at a 40 mil + weekend, which is going to be amazing so its Oscar push...
10 most likely Supporting Actress candiates
Cate Blanchett: I’m Not there
Julia Roberts: Charlie Wilson’s War
Michelle Pfeiffer: Hairspray
Queen Latifah: Hairspray
Leslie Mann: Knocked Up
Kelly Macdonald: No Country for Old Men
Vanessa Redgrave: Atonement
Saoirse Ronan: Atonement
Tilda Swinton: Michael Clayton
Jenifer Garner: Juno
Take out Latifah and replace her with Jennifer Jason Leigh for Margot at the Wedding and you basically have it...
AMY RYAN! people understand this she will be nominated!
The only time kids win Oscars seem to be when it gets thrown to them due to tight competition between two other nominees such as when Anna Paquin won her upset in the very tight Winona Ryder and Rosie Perez race.
Could it happen this year? Sure. Will it? We'll have to wait to see who the full slate of nominees are, but I'm not holding my breath right now.
Where is Amy Ryan? She has a more Oscarish role- A drunk and bitch mother. The critics love her perfomance and she's with Saorsie Ronan the strongest competition to Blanchett
My top ten:
Five favorites:
-Cate Blanchett: I'm not there
-Amy Ryan: Gone baby gone
-Saorsie Ronan: Atonement
(The hardest competition)
-Jennifer Jason leigh: MATW
-Evan Rachel Wood: In bloom
Other fives:
-Jennifer garner: Juno
-Queen Latifah: hairspray
-Michelle Pffeifer: hairspray
-Vanessa Redgrave: Atonement
-Susan Sarandon: ITVOE
Bonus:
-Helena Bonham Carter and Tabu
And don't forget Samantha Morton:
-Control or Elizabeth: TGA, but she has more changes to "Control"
Redgrave and Letifah are not going to be nominated lets get that clear, the probably wont even get gg nominations.
It looks like theres 2 maybe 3 locks.
Blanchett &
Ronan
Ryan is almost a lock
the other spots could go to any of these actresses
Garner, Tomei, Swinton, Leigh, Morton(for Control), Roberts, or Mcdonald.
My Predicted 5 are..
Cate Blanchett (Im not There)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Marisa Tomei (BTDKYD)
Kelly Mcdonald(No Country for Old Men)
It's a glaring error not having Hal Holbrook in the supporting actor list for "Into the Wild".
INTO THE WILD SUCKED.
I REGRET NOTHING!
Did anyone read the article at The Oscar Igloo up now about BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS? Is this guy wrong?
Don't forget that when you predict five nominees, one of them actually has to win the category. I wouldn't be surprised if Julia Roberts starts getting serious talk in 2 months' time. If the Academy wants her to have a second Oscar, why not now?
I don't buy Charlie Wilson's War.
"Into the Wild" was excellent. Hal Holbrook should be in the final five predictions ASAP.
Into the Wild had very, very fundamental issues that stemmed from Sean Penn's directing. Issues so simple that I'm not surprised so many people missed them, but Hal Holbrook is currently in my dream list for supporting actor, which is currently:
Javier Bardem
Ben Foster
Tom Wilkinson
Hal Holbrook
Robert Downey Jr.
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