In the end, I tenatively chose The Departed to win Best Picture. I could analyze that category until the cows came home, but there's really no point. For once, it's anybody's game, so I'm not too worried about being right or wrong this year. I'm just looking forward to watching the damn telecast.
But I'm interested in hearing what you guys think will win the night's biggest prize. Will it be The Departed after all? Is it Little Miss Sunshine's to lose? Or will Babel capitalize on its Globe win and snag the Oscar as well?
22 comments:
I think it's "The Departed' vs. "Babel" with an upset by "Little Miss Sunshine" ...but with "LMS" getting the Spirit Award, I think that is the consolation prize...I am leaning toward "The Departed" but "Babel" could sneak in here too...my head hurts!! LOL! Hey, if you are from the NY area, did you go to Times Square and hold an Oscar?? It was fun and beyond awesome!
Anth
The best picture page doesn't seem to be updated.. however, I support Little Miss Sunshine for best picture. I don't care if it missed key nominations. It's proved itself throughout the season that it's been the little movie that could. Well, ideally, I support Letters from Iwo Jima, but it has no buzz or box office, so.. yeah.
I hate Babel. By the way, what is meant by "the predicted nine"? I've seen it for the whole past year, and all it does is redirect to the best picture page, which, by the way, doesn't seem to be updated.
It should be working, aredotwice. Hmm.
It's funny. Part of me chose The Departed because I'd feel less stupid if it didn't win than say if I had predicted LMS or Babel. Oh well.
Is anybody else really excited about tomorrow? I haven't felt this way in at least a couple of years.
The predicted 9 means the top 9 categories. It's not supposed to link to anything. My bad LOL.
FINGERS CROSSED FOR BABEL AND EASTWOOD.
HOPEFULLY OSCAR WILL REWARD THE TRUE ARTISTIC ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE YEAR--BABEL AND LETTERS.
BOTH ARE HUGE RISKS THAT PAID OFF AMAZINGLY WELL. WOW THEY ARE THE REASONS PEOPLE SHOULD MAKE MOVIES. SO INSPIRING.
I THINK MARTY MIGHT SQUEAK BY. BUT ITS MORE LIKE A LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD. OR KINDA LIKE THE AMPAS FEELS SORRY FOR HIM OR SOMETHING.
ALSO ROOTING FOR BRESLIN. SHE REALLY IS LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. AND IF SHE CANT WIN I HOPE THE BEAUTIFUL BABEL LADIES DONT CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT. THEY BOTH ARE SO REMARKABLE. I MIGHT HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO BARAZZA. SHE IS SO GOOD. SO CLASSY.
GO HELEN. GO FORREST. SUCH DESERVING LOCKS.
I WOULD BE FINE IF EDDIE WON--BUT I REALLY FEEL LIKE IT WOULD BE SO MUCH SWEETER FOR JACKIE EARL HALEY OR ALAN ARKIN TO GET IT.
TOO BAD BRAD WAS SNUBBED FOR BABEL--HE WOULDA WON IF HE'D BEEN NOMMED.
I am changing my prediction from Eddie Murphy to Jackie Earle Haley and not becuase I think the performance is better, but becuase if voters are tired of the Alan Arkin/Eddie Murphy "who to choose" Jackie can win in either a split vote or something like that....but I still want to predict Eddie, so I just don't know what to do....I am predicting that Dreamgirls will win the most of the night, followed by The Departed but I am saying that Dreamgirls will not leave the Kodak theatre with less than 3 wins....and I really cannot wait until tomorrow. Though I am "new" at all this Oscar stuff, not knowing who will win is more fun than knowing who will, and Ellen DeGenerous seems like a great host and with the presenters and everything else I have heard about the Oscars, I think it's gonna be a great show.
Alright, now the best picture page works. Or, at least, is updated.
If I had my own awards like the everything oscar thing, I'd say my most disappointing was The Departed, for the same reasons you stated for Dreamgirls. I was so hyped about it but it disappointed me so much. Well actually it's not the same reasons. The Departed still did well with awards and critics. But at least.. in *my* mind.. yeah.. This is ironic because *your* best picture is my most disappointing. Although, public opinion doesn't seem to agree with me. If I never saw Infernal Affairs, I probably would've loved The Departed. Oh well, off topic. Sorry. It's just that, I've been visiting this site for the past year like almost every day. Haha.
why should we see babel win best picture? that would be boring. the departed would be exciting. little miss sunshine would be... well - oh so inspiring.
i want to see the departed take it, but something tells me two heavy films may split and what can hardly be called a surprise anymore, little miss sunshine, could come out on top.
hey y'all, remember when dreamgirls was among the bigger threats in the best picture category?
I still dunno, THE DEPARTED for best picture?? The nature of the story is not up the academy's ally; those stories never are. It is clearly a director's picture, which is why scorcese might win, and i say might, because, lets face it, its the academy, and sometimes they just dont listen to the general concensus, i.e. CRASH over BROKEBACK.
On the other hand, an uplifting message that says something about our current times, i.e. LMS. it will be the first best picture winner since driving miss daisy without a director nom.
Am I the only one rooting for Rinko Kikuchi??? I havent seen Dreamgirls, but Rinko's performance was so quiet and moving. And I really liked Babel, but I don't think it can overpower LMS. Murphy, Mirren, and Whitaker, (with the only upset being WILL SMITH) are locks, but dont expect any big upsets. I know babel will win at least one major category. but theres always one best picture nom thats shut out completely, it happens every single year, and i think LETTERS is it.
It's a tough call this year but I say "The Departed" wins simply through process of elimination and by virtue of it being the front-runner in more overall categories than "Babel."
"Babel" has 7 overall nods, more than any of the other 4 BP nominees. But it will lose both of its acting nominations, its directing nomination, and in all likelihood, its screenplay nomination. I suspect also that it will not prevail in the best Score category leaving only editing as a category where is has a really good shot. If it were to win BP and Editing, that's only 2 overall wins.
"The Departed," on the other hand, seems all but a lock in the Best Director category and the Adapted Screenplay category -- that gives it two wins going into the final stretch giving it a bit of a leg up. Assuming that it loses its lone acting nomination (pretty much a given) and the editing category (although it could pull out a win there) that would give it an overall number of 3 wins -- not a particularly impressive number but putting it on par with last year's "Crash."
"Little Miss Sunshine?" Maybe. Maybe if the "serious" vote is split four other ways and there is the betting rule that when the two front-runners are in a tight fight bet on the longshot. But the movie just may be a little TOO much of a longshot. It has been 17 years since a movie won when it did not have a directing nomination and, perhaps even more telling, 29 years since a comedy won Best Picture ("Annie Hall" in 1977). People love the movie and the sentiment to see it win something will pay off with an Original Screenplay win, but since it is not likely that it will win either of its acting nomination (although Alan Arkin can't be totally ruled out for an upset) that puts it in the same boat as "Babel -- it would be a BP winner with only two overall Oscars. There has been talk of actors, who make up the biggest branch of the Academy, rallying around LMS to give the finger to the studios who so many have clashed with but I think that is mostly just talk.
"The Queen" and "Letters From Iowa Jima" will have to settle for the honor of the nomination, although given the overall tightness of the BP race NOTHING is certain until the envelope is opened.
I've seen four of the five movies (haven't seen Letters yet) and I loved The Departed and LMS, Bable to me was preachy and boring (like Crash last year). I'd love to see LMS take it and I have a feeling it might because it's seen as the little movie that could. I've heard that lots of people in the Academy REALLY didn't like Babel, so you never know, it could have been voted for enough to get the nomination, but just barely. Honestly as long as The Departed or LMS wins I'll feel good about it. Not enough to make up for last year, but it'll do. The award that I'm really hoping for is Jennifer Hudson. As long as she wins, I'll be happy. Her performance is really one that will stand up after time. I won't be really really mad if Abby wins, but if one of the Babel chicks win, I'll be pissed.
I didn't really like "Babel" either, but both Barraza and Kikuchi deleiver very, very impressive performances and it would be hard to argue with the merits of either one winning (which would have to be seen as a major upset should either occur).
May you all have a wonderful night tonight. Remember tonight is really a silly popularity contest, and is not about movies…..it is about fashion!
Hope you all have a great night!!!!!!!
P.S. Thank you Andy for some great coverage!
I'm gonna say that Little Miss Sunshine will win. But I'm expecting to get BP wrong. But if I said Babel would win, I would expect to get it wrong. If I said The Departed would win, I would expect to get it wrong. All I know is that my heart rate will be going way up when the last envelope is opened. All of the nominees I've seen (which is all except Letters) are deserving. For once the Academy got it right.
Having seen "Letters from Iwo Jima" I can say that it is indeed an impressive achievement -- not always pleasant to watch (then again, any decent war movie should be that way) but very well done. I have no problem with its inclusion.
If I could make any change to the 5 BP nominees I'd take "Babel" out and replace it with "Children of Men." I've yet to see the much talked about "The Lives of Others" but once I do that might alter things but by that time the point will be moot anyway I suppose.
In any case I think it is very much possible -- although not probable -- the Germany's "The Lives of Others" could pull the biggest upset of the night by being named Best Foreign Language Picture over "Pan's Labyrinth." People who have seen it are absolutely raving about it and the this is one category in which Academy rules dictate one has to have seen all the nominees in order to vote meaning that nobody can vote for "Pan's Labyrinth" simply because it was the one movie they saw. Word is that there are many in the industry who can't stop talking about "The Lives of Others." Pan still has the upper hand and I suspect it will prevail, but boy this is one time I would really, really, REALLY, like to see the raw vote totals.
I wouldn't be surprised if The Queen pulls a Driving Miss Daisy, meaning Best Actress, Best Screenplay, and Best Picture. This year is a nail-biter for sure.
I could be mistaken, but I believe Apocalypto is nominated for best makeup, not Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest.
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