Best Actress

New predix here.

Overall, nothing too drastic. At this point, I think there's nothing stopping Helen Mirren and Meryl Streep from picking up nomination. In fact, it seems like nothing will stop Mirren from taking home the prize, either, especially if The Queen picks up a Best Picture nomination (which I think it will).

Also looking safe is Penelope Cruz in "Volver", which is looking to be one of Almodovar's biggest hits yet.

After that, things start to look fuzzy. I moved Judi Dench from supporting to here, and after seeing the trailer, I feel pretty comfortable with the decision. As Sasha Stone always says: never underestimate the power of Judi Dench.

And as for Kate Winslet...well, I don't know. Unfortunately, this is looking to be another weak year for Best Actress (competition wise) so I guess she could still sneak in. We still have 3 months to go, though, so you never know what might happen (BEYONCE FOR THE WIN!!!! ;) )

Best Actor updates are up next, and will be posted as soon as I can figure out all the category confusion surrounding "The Departed".

"Notes on a Scandal" Trailer

Thanks to 15 and Coolio at the OW forums for the link.

I read the book over the summer, which was a total page turner, so I couldn't be more pleased with the footage here, even if it does reveal most of the plot. Judi Dench in particular looks great.

Best Actress updates tonight (or early tomorrow).

Best Supporting Actress

I've been holding off on updating this page for awhile now because it's really one of the most confusing races of the year. There's just not that many candidates to choose from this year, which makes it a pain and a half to predict.

Still, though, I couldn't handle seeing my old predix up and about, so I had to at least change something. And most of the changes you'll see are consensus choices - with the exception of Vanessa Redgrave in "Venus". Supposedly, she has only 5 minutes of screentime, but if Peter O'Toole's performance is as big as they say, you never know what other nominations "Venus" will pull in.

More updates to come. And please feel free to suggest any contenders I left out. I'm still scratching my head over this category.

In the News

---As many of you know, trailers for both Dreamgirls and The Good German hit the web this week. I wasn't necessarily overwhelmed by the former (I've seen most of the clips already), although I'll admit the film looks great - particularly the costume and set designs. But what really surprised me was Beyonce. Not only does she look gorgeous, we might finally get a good performance out of her ("You swear?" - loved it)

As for The Good German, well, I'm torn. Like Dreamgirls, it's sort of an awkward trailer, but I'm already loving the cinematography. Tobey looks pretty baity, too.

---In other news, it was announced today that the Ashley Judd drama/thriller "Bug" will be postponed until 2007. Although many had already pulled Judd out of their predix, the news still opens the door for many Best Actress candidates. After Mirren, Streep and Cruz, things start to look cloudy.

---And finaly, in the race for Best Picture, Flags of Our Fathers opens to fairly good reviews, including raves from the NY and LA times. Regardless, I'm still hestitant about it's Oscar chances. We'll know more when the box office numbers are released this weekend.

Best Director

New updates today on the Best Director page.

Remaining in the lineup is Bill Condon, who looks set for his first nomination for the widely publicized adaptation "Dreamgirls". Also staying put is Paul Greengrass. "United 93" will need massive help from the precursors, but I'm not ready to give him the boot just yet.

Elsewhere, Martin Scorsese returns after a brief absence, and I must admit I'm pretty happy about that. I knew people were underestimating "The Departed" back in April, but it's still nice to see Marty back in the running again. Hope he wins.

Also, Stephen Frears should have no trouble getting nominated after all the Oscar talk Helen Mirren has created. It looks like "The Queen", not "The Last King of Scotland" (which basically died after Toronto), is set to be this year's "Capote".

And finally, Innaritu makes his way into the mix since I'm forcing myself to follow the "Babel" consensus. Still, though, I remain skeptical.

On a side note: I also threw James Cromwell and Michael Sheen of "The Queen" into my Best Supporting Actor backups. I'd imagine one of them will be nominated if the film manages a Best Picture nomination.

More updates tomorrow (hopefully). I need to update Best Supporting Actress. Ugh. What a weak category that's turning out to be.

For Your Viewing Pleasure

A couple of new images popped up today which might pique your interest:

For starters, IMP Awards has our first look at the Dreamgirls poster. Not bad, I say. In fact, I was expecting worse. My only complaint: the complete lack of J-Hud on the billing. But never fear, Idol fans. If she's any good in the movie, I'm willing to bet she'll be the name on everybody's lips come December.

Next up is the poster for the Renee Zellweger vehicle Miss Potter. Now this one sucks, but that won't stop me from another chance to see my girl on the big screen (quiet, haters - she's a good actress!)

And finally, here's a rather, um, revealing and NS4W look at Daniel Craig in Casino Royale. If this doesn't get you excited for the movie, well, I fear for your sanity.

More updates this weekend.

R.I.P. Richard Gere's Oscar Chances

Months of wishful thinking came to an end for me today as it was announced that Lasse Hollstrom's "The Hoax", starring my beloved Richard Gere, was pushed back to 2007. Truthfully, I lost all hope in Gere's chances as the season progressed, but God dammit. I'm still bitter over that Chicago snub, so much that I was willing to hang on until the bitter end. Oh well.

Anyway, updates will be made accordingly in the coming days. In the meantime, feel free to mourn in the comments section below.

EDIT: Thanks for posting the news here, 15!

Dixie Chicks: Shut Up and Sing Trailer

http://movies.yahoo.com/feature/shutupandsingqt1.html

If you didn't know already, I love the Dixie Chicks. I've followed them since the early days, through good times and bad. And next to Dreamgirls, this is easily my most anticipated movie of the year. The trailer itself is a little lame, but the movie should be good given the still baffling subject matter.

Enjoy.

More Updates

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Children
The Queen

TOTAL work in progress here, but I needed to get rid of The Last King of Scotland and The History Boys. Seeing them still there in my lineup was starting to make me nervous.

To be honest, I'm not really comfortable about the new set (too idealistic?), but I'm trying to take a few chances here, particularly with The Queen and The Departed. I saw The Queen yesterday afternoon and it just struck me as something the Academy will go for. But it's going to be an uphill battle considering the size of the film.

As for The Departed, the reviews are kind of hard to ignore. And I get the feeling it's going to do well at the box office, and once you combine that with the fact that it's a Scorsese film, well, you never know.

Babel's a real question mark for me, but since everybody's predicting I figured what the hell?

My only real concern right now, though, is the lack of period piece movies. I mean, I have Dreamgirls, but are they really going to go for that many contemporary movies, especially with baity stuff like Flags of Our Fathers and The Good Shepherd coming out? Probably not, but meh. I'm trying to keep things exciting.