Best Supporting Actor & Actress: 2006

I wanted a mixture of newbies and veterans, so you'll see I've taken a few risks in Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. Whether or not they'll pay off remains to be seen.

In the meantime, let the bitching begin. ;)

Pfeiffer Turns Pforty-Eight

Happy Birthday to the pfeirce and pfabulous Michelle Pfeiffer, who turns 48 today.

What comes to mind when I think of Michelle are the following two things:

1.) The snub heard round the world: Pfeiffer's loss to Jessica Tandy in the race for the '89 Best Actress Oscar. Really. After taking the Globe, NYFCC, LAFCA, among other awards, Pfeiffer should have been an easy choice for voters. But no. They had to cop out and give it to the old hag who drove herself into a ditch over one of the ten best female performances of all. time.

Ugh. And we thought Crash's win was undeserved.

2.) "Cool Rider": I was obsessed with this song growing up, and sadly I still am today. Yes, it's on my iPod, along with The Pfabulous Baker Boys soundtrack, and yes, I'm damn proud of it. I really don't know what it is about the song, but it cracks me up. And if you ever go out drinking with me, ask me to sing it, because I will, dance moves and all.

I wish I was kidding when I said this, but it's true. Sigh.

Anyway, happy birthday Michelle! May we all pray you never read this.

United 93

Opening today is Paul Greengrass' "United 93", the best reviewed film of the year according to Rotten Tomatoes.

Now I know reviews don't guarantee anything, especially at this time of year, but if the film can manage decent box office numbers this weekend, is it possible for "United 93" to become a serious Oscar contender?

For me, I'm on the fence. I feel like I need to see it first, which I plan on doing sometime in the next couple of days. But in the mean time, what do you guys think? Is this likely or will the film fall off the radar by say, September?

Best Actress: 2006

Grr. I hate this lineup.

For starters, I have four returning nominees. That seems unlikely. Plus, they're all hot, which means some distinguised veteran a la Judi Dench/Imelda Staunton is likely to come in and fuck things up.

The only real chance I took here was Renee Zellweger, if you can even call that a chance. Who knows if Miss Potter will stay on the '06 roster, but if it does I see it as a potential threat.

Dunst I'm not too happy about predicting. I wanted to go with Paquin - and I predicted both at one point - but when is the last time we had 2 nominees under the age of 25? Anyone know?

Ugh. And don't get me started on the Nicole snub. I'll probably grow to regret that one, too.

More Predix Tomorrow Night

I've been having trouble posting predix lately for a number of different reasons, mostly because of work and internet problems. Ugh.

But in the meantime, everybody needs to go and purchase "Not Ready to Make Nice" by the Dixie Chicks on iTunes. It's a great song that needs our support since country radio is apparently not ready to welcome them back yet.

So purchase, purchase purchase!!!!!

Best Actor: 2006

I went back and forth between Jude Law and Patrick Wilson for the last Best Actor spot, but ended up settling on Law since this category is most kind to former nominees and vets. Not sure how all that nanny stuff is going to factor into the race, though. We shall see.

Other picks:

Matt Damon should be a shoe in for something this year given the number of films he's in. Forrest Whitaker should make it in, too, if the performance is as big as I'm thinking it might be. Javier Bardem...well, it all depends on how good Goya's Ghosts is, I suppose.

And as for Richard Gere, I'm surprised other people aren't putting him on their lists. This seems like the performance that could finally get him recgonition of this calibre.

Of course, he should've been nominated in 2002, but let's not go there, shall we? Ugh.

Best Director: 2006

I really struggled over the last spot here - figured it'd go to a vet this time around. Some say The Departed's not an Oscar movie, but that hasn't stopped the directors branch from making out of the box choices in the past. And they love Marty, even though they can't get themselves to give him the win. Sigh.

Also, there were literally tons and tons of contenders I simply could not make room for, so don't be too upset if your favorite director didn't make the cut. Everyone beyond the predicted 5 stands an equal chance at being nominated in my book.

One last side note: What do you guys think will happen to For Your Consideration? I'm personally on the fence. On one hand, it's a Christopher Guest movie, which they've barely embraced in the past. But For Your Consideration might push voters over the edge, since the film is sure to make voters laugh based on the subject matter.

Best Picture: 2006

As promised, my Best Picture predix are now up and running for your viewing pleasure.

But before you guys get to praising and/or trashing them, I thought it'd be best to further explain why these five films were selected...starting with Dreamgirls.

Dreamgirls is a movie that many people have already written off - and I can understand why. This is not your typical prestige Oscar contender. Not only does it star Beyonce Knowles, it's got American Idol castoff Jennifer Hudson - who's never acted in a film before - in the pivotal role of Effie White. So the risks are there. Whether or not they'll pay off is the question, and I don't think we'll have any real clue until the trailer premieres later this year. Until then, I can only hope for the best.

Next on the list is The Good Shepherd. DeNiro's been off Oscar's radar for years now, so if this is any good we should expect a nice comeback. You know how Oscar loves actors turned directors. And if it's really good, well, perhaps DeNiro will become this year's George Clooney. But let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet.

Goya's Ghosts is being directed by another man who hasn't struck gold in awhile: Milos Forman. I admittedly don't like having this in my lineup since the film doesn't have a distributor, but who knows? After the dominance of indie movies last season, Oscar might be hungry for some good ol' fashioned Hollywood epics.

Of course, The Last King of Scotland doesn't fit that particular bill, but if Forrest Whitaker starts generating a lot of buzz it could make it into the final five the same way Capote and Shine have done in the past.

Finally, Little Children takes the obligatory contemporary spot. I read Tom Perrota's novel about two years ago and think it could translate into a very interesting movie if handled the right way. Todd Field seems apt to take such a challenge after proving himself with 2001's Oscar-nominated "In the Bedroom".

So that's it for now. I'll be dishing more predix tomorrow and Thursday, starting with Best Director.

And remember: please consider that it's only April and that realistically only one or two of these movies might get nominated. So keep the hate mail to a minimum. I'd appreciate it. ;)

Updates/Questions

I hate to do this, but unfortunately I'll be pushing my year in advance predictions to sometime early next week. I made a few changes without thinking last night and now everything's completely fucked up. I think the problem is that for some reason I made my predictions in the acting categories and best picture at the same time. Normally, I like to start with Best Picture and then go from there, which is what I'm going to do now.

In the meantime, can anybody clue me in as to the category placements of Goya's Ghosts? Is Natalie Portman leading or supporting? And what about Stellan Skarsgard? I know he's playing the title character, but IMDB lists him after Bardem.

Thanks.